More Bout-Griner exchange tea leaf reading


The New York Times weighs in with a nuanced analysis amid mounting speculation that a prisoner swap sending Viktor Bout back to Moscow may be the only way to return basketball star Brittney Griner and perhaps imprisoned American businessman Paul Whelan to the U.S.

The Times describes a crescendo of interest among Russian media talking heads clamoring for Bout’s return, a reflection of Moscow’s repeated efforts over the past decade to free Bout from his 25-year prison sentence in a federal medium-security prison in Marion, Ill.

The Times quotes a gathering of experts and officials — some by name and some anonymously — opining on whether the U.S. would be ready to spring Bout for Griner and perhaps Whelan. The catch, as has been reported here and elsewhere, is that if the Biden administration cuts loose the convicted Russian arms dealer, does that set in motion an endless cat-and-mouse game with Russia over whether to repatriate vulnerable Americans accused of questionable crimes in return for Russian prisoners held in the U.S. on legitimate criminal charges?

The Times notes a recent warning from State Department spokesman Ned Price, who said: “Using wrongful detention as a bargaining chip represents a threat to the safety of everyone traveling, working and living abroad.”

The Times anonymously quotes one former U.S. official who “said the Russian government’s interest in his freedom appeared to be personal and that he has ties to powerful people close to President Vladimir V. Putin.” That former official and another quoted anonymously said they doubted the Biden administration would free Bout and noted that Russia had been repeatedly frustrated in the past in official diplomatic and legal efforts to bring Bout back to Moscow — including several efforts reported here on the “Merchant of Death” site.

Steve Zissou, a New York attorney who is the latest in a string of lawyers representing Bout in the U.S., told the Times such a deal is the only way to bring Griner back: “It has been communicated to the American side very clearly that they’re going to have to get real on Viktor Bout if they expect any further prisoner exchanges,” Mr. Zissou said. “My sense of this is that no American is going home unless Viktor Bout is sent home with them.”

And Shira A. Scheindlin, the former federal judge who oversaw Bout’s conviction in 2011, said a swap for Bout might be worthwhile if it included Griner and Whelan. Scheindlin, who was skeptical of the case against Bout during the trial — calling him a businessman, “not a terrorist” — could have sentenced Bout up to the 99-year term sought by prosecutors, but whittled it down to his minimum mandatory 25 year sentence.

Bout was convicted by a federal court jury in New York in 2011 on conspiracy charges stemming from a 2008 sting by U.S. narcotics agents against the arms merchant in Bangkok. Bout languished in a Thai prison for 3 years before he was extradited to the U.S. under protest from Moscow.

Predictably, the Washington Post mirrored the New York Times reportage the same day with its own take on Bout. Titled “Who is Viktor Bout,” the Post story quotes Zissou and also cites “Merchant of Death” co-author Douglas Farah from a 2002 article he wrote about Bout during Farah’s tenure as an investigative reporter at the Post.

The latest Post story also cites a 2002 Los Angeles Times account that exposed the Bout organization’s dealings with the Taliban — an account reported by an investigative team that included “Merchant of Death” co-author Stephen Braun, then a Washington-based investigative reporter and national correspondent for the LA Times.